In January 2025, the price of potatoes in Kazakhstan surged sharply, with many retail outlets now charging over 500 tenge per kilogram. Just at the end of 2024, the product was priced between 150-200 tenge.
According to Bayzhan Ualkhanov, chairman of the Potato and Vegetable Growers Union of Kazakhstan, the demand for potatoes began to rise significantly in early January due to the numerous public holidays. This resulted in a certain shortage that retailers took advantage of. He believes that this trend started in the southern regions of the country.
“If a producer sees that the retail price of potatoes is three times higher than what he sells from his warehouse, he will naturally seek to increase his margin,” Ualkhanov explains. However, he notes that the wholesale price has not generally exceeded 230-240 tenge, emphasizing that this mainly pertains to premium potatoes. In his view, regular (mixed) potatoes are still being sold by producers at prices ranging from 105 to 170 tenge.
“The situation changes when retailers purchase mixes and a certain quantity of large-caliber potatoes, blend the batches, and sell everything at the price of a premium product,” the expert adds. He sees this as a shortcoming on the part of government agencies that should control trade practices.
Ualkhanov also suggests that some of the social potatoes, procured at low prices for stabilization funds, have been diverted through intermediaries to markets at new, non-social prices instead of going to supermarkets.
Meanwhile, the Ministry of Trade and Integration of the Republic of Kazakhstan reported on January 22 that since the beginning of 2025, 49 violations have already been identified—specifically, exceeding the trade markup of 15% on potatoes, which are considered socially significant products. The ministry also assures that following meetings with major retail chains, particularly Small and Magnum, the average price of potatoes in Astana has decreased: according to the Ministry of Trade and Integration, in Small stores it has dropped to 280 tenge, while in the Magnum chain, it is now 185 tenge per kilogram.
As of January 22, the average price of potatoes across Kazakhstan stands at 322 tenge. In partner social stores of the Agricultural Production Cooperative (SPK) throughout the country, potatoes are available in sufficient quantities and at prices below market levels, the ministry confirmed.
However, on January 23 in Almaty, Magnum is selling potatoes (“farmers”, “selected”) for 449-529 tenge per kilogram, while Small (Spar) offers them at 399 tenge (first-grade potatoes).
“In the regions, the process of distributing potatoes from the reserves formed in stabilization funds continues. With total reserves of 85.4 thousand tons, from December 2024 to January 19, 2025, 23.6 thousand tons of potatoes have been sold,” the ministry stated.
Nevertheless, according to the chairman of the Potato and Vegetable Growers Union, the demand for this product remains high. “The population is clearing the shelves of potatoes, and sellers are taking risks: it’s better for them to pay a small fine than to lose 200% of their profit,” he believes.
Regarding online retailers, Daniel Kim, director of Airba Fresh LLP, stated that the average price of potatoes across the network in Almaty is currently 450 tenge. The price has already begun to gradually decline but remains between last year's 350 tenge and the ceiling of 550 tenge, he clarified. The rise in potato prices has been mainly influenced by restrictions on the import of the product from Russia, which were imposed by that country at the beginning of the year, Kim asserts. The price drop began after Kazakhstan imposed a ban on exports, he adds.
At the same time, according to Airba Fresh, the demand for potatoes during this period has increased slightly, by no more than 10% compared to 2024.
Independent economist Marat Kairlenov is convinced that the imposed ban on potato exports will not significantly alter the price regulation situation. In his opinion, the increase in product prices is due to heightened demand from Russians, which he associates with a poor harvest in Russia in 2024.
“The ban on exports beyond the EAEU will not significantly impact the situation, as Russia is part of the EAEU and will likely continue to purchase potatoes from our market,” he believes. “It is reasonable to expect that Russians will increasingly buy food products from us as their agriculture faces growing challenges due to sanctions.”
Kairlenov suggests that it would be tactically wise to limit potato exports to Russia. To address the issue more systematically, Kazakhstan needs to enhance its own production. “It would also be sensible to eliminate the utilization fee on agricultural machinery, which would lower the ‘entry barrier’ into this business for our entrepreneurs,” the economist concludes.
According to the Ministry of Agriculture, the increased demand from neighboring countries, particularly Uzbekistan, and high export prices this year have also triggered a 1.5-fold rise in potato exports, from 411 thousand tons to 605 thousand tons.
It is worth noting that on January 18, the Interagency Commission on Trade Activities decided to restrict potato exports to third countries for six months. “This measure does not apply to EAEU countries; however, exports in this direction will be monitored. Additionally, given the prevailing situation, the issuance of phytosanitary certificates for exports was completely suspended on January 16,” the Ministry of Agriculture reported.
At the same time, the ministry claims that there are sufficient potato reserves to fully meet domestic demand until the early harvest of 2025. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, as of January 19, reserves amount to over 850 thousand tons, excluding stocks in retail chains (600 thousand tons with the Potato Growers Association, 68 thousand tons in stabilization funds, and over 200 thousand tons in cellars of private farms and small households).