Daniyar Kopaev, advisor to the chairman of the board of Teniz Capital Investment Banking and CFA, discussed the future of the banking sector in Kazakhstan.
Daniyar, a year ago in an interview, you predicted that the potential for M&A deals was not exhausted and anticipated mergers among Kazakhstani players. Do you still hold the same opinion?
— We believe that in the first half of 2025, we will witness at least two M&A deals between Kazakhstani banks. The reasons are clear: to compete with giants like Halyk and Kaspi, other players are forced to consolidate and merge, as banks incur significant capital expenditures on technology, and competition and regulation are only intensifying. The tightening of retail business regulations and leverage on securities portfolios will push smaller Kazakhstani banks towards mergers. I would also like to add that we expect similar mergers and acquisitions in Kazakhstan’s insurance market.
You mentioned that "the flagships of the banking sector, in red and green, have systematic revenue diversification and a significant buffer of liquid assets during periods of high interest rates." How have these players strengthened their positions in 2024?
— As we noted a year ago, Halyk and Kaspi will dominate the market, which was confirmed in 2024 by the growth of their financial indicators, and in the case of Halyk Bank, also by capitalization and stock price increases. Specifically, Halyk shares showed a +30% increase in 2024, even considering the decline in the tenge exchange rate, resulting in a 20% yield.
What other events might significantly impact the financial sector of the republic?
— This year, we also expect the placement of shares of national companies, and banks with brokerage licenses will play a key role. I would like to note that shares of national companies serve as a mechanism for redistributing the nation’s wealth and resources, which, by the way, has a positive effect on the savings of the population. Many Kazakhs already hold shares of national companies, and interest in local issuers is only growing.