“With a real GDP growth forecast of 4.8% in 2024, the target (goal – Kursiv) for 2025 is set at 7%. This is a very high, yet achievable figure if investment projects in the real sector of the economy are implemented in a timely manner,” the statement released following the economic growth task force meeting reads.
The latest meeting of the economic growth task force, led by Zhumnagarin, focused on the potential of the oil and gas sector this year and the investment and economic development of the Mangistau region.
According to the Deputy Minister of Energy Erlan Akkenzhanov, the volume of oil refining in January reached 1.53 million tons, which is 4% higher compared to January 2024. Additionally, this figure exceeds the January plan by 0.6 percentage points.
Oil refining accounts for less than 1% of the country's GDP structure (0.8% for 2023 and 0.6% for the first nine months of 2024). Nevertheless, oil refining represents the production of high value-added products. Once the expansion project of the joint venture CaspiBitum is completed, expected by the end of May 2025, its capacity will increase from 1 million tons to 1.5 million tons of oil per year. Caspi Bitum began preparatory work on the project to expand capacity to 750,000 tons of bitumen per year in the fall of 2024, previously reported by “Kursiv” from “KazMunayGas.” The plant will increase the processing of high-viscosity oil from the Karajanbas field from 1 to 1.5 million tons per year.
In July 2024, the Chairman of KMG Askat Khasenov emphasized the importance of launching the plant before the start of the 2025 road construction season. As a result of the project's implementation, the total processing capacity in 2026 is expected to grow from 18 million to 18.5 million tons.
During the meeting, the Deputy Prime Minister listened to concerns regarding the loading of large oil refineries and mini-oil refineries.
“In the absence of any serious external factors, the oil refining sector has a good chance of increasing its contribution to Kazakhstan's GDP this year,” believes Zhumnagarin.
Separately, the components of the targeted growth index of the physical volume of production in the Mangistau region were discussed. With a growth target of 7% for this year, January results indicate low performance in agriculture and fisheries (87.5% against a plan of 101%) and trade (102% instead of the target of 105.4%). In this regard, the Deputy Prime Minister instructed to ensure the achievement of the set plans in the coming months. Given the significant share of trade in the country’s GDP, which accounted for 19% in 2024, one of the upcoming task force meetings will focus on trade and transport with storage.
The task force also examined and analyzed the reasons for the low utilization of funds for budget investment projects in the region. The Deputy Prime Minister tasked to review all projects needing urgent financing through the lens of their impact on increasing contributions to the real sector of the economy.